The best scenario for the USA to remain in the Top 12 of the Sevens World Series is for them to control their own destiny. If the Eagles were to make the semifinals in Edinburgh, they would mathematically confirm a place in the top 12.

Realistically, they can’t be expected to do that, as they are in a very tough pool, and haven’t threatened to make the semis since Dubai. However, what’s more likely is, if the USA gets any IRB points at all, they will almost certainly clinch a place in the top 12, because it is highly unlikely that Kenya, Scotland, Portugal, Russia, France and Canada would all get big points.

In fact, if you follow the form sheet, all the teams at the bottom of the standings will be in the bottom of their pool standings, as well.

What will probably happen is Russia and France will play Portugal and Spain in the Bowl Quarters, and Canada and Kenya will face off with the USA and Scotland.

Those eight teams represent the bottom 8 of the IRB standings:
9^th Kenya and Scotland 12pts
11^th USA 10pts
12^th Portugal and Russia 8 pts
14^th France 6 Pts
15^th Canada 5 Pts
16^th Spain 0 Pts
So, if we assume that all these teams are playing for the Bowl, only one of these teams will claim points (4 for the Bowl). If it’s Spain, the standings don’t change. If it’s Canada, the Canadians jump up to 12^th . France, if they win, tie the USA at 11^th. If Portugal or Russia win, they jump up to tie Kenya and Scotland for 9^th, bumping the USA to 12^th. Meanwhile the Eagles can move up to take 9^th and pass Kenya and Scotland.

So … as much as schadenfreud isn’t what we encourage here at RUGBYMag.com … the Eagles might be wishing that the lower-ranked teams all finish in the bottom of their pools. If that happens, regardless of who wins the Bowl, the USA will clinch a spot in the Top 12. If the USA wins the Bowl themselves, they could be as high as 9^th.

And finally, the USA can conceivably finish as high as 8^th. To do that, they would have to make the final or win the tournament.

You get the feeling that the USA 7s team players might feel at home in the dreary, wet weather in Edinburgh.

After getting a long talk about taking care of the ball, not forcing passes, and being content with taking five minutes to score a try, the Eagles finished off their London 7s by … throwing the ball away. They staggered out of London 1-4, and angry at themselves for losing the wrong way.

Unfazed, Head Coach Al Caravelli has returned to his mantra of ball retention, and told RUGBYMag.com that the players have been focused all week leading up to the Edinburgh 7s.

“Training has been good,” said the coach. “The guys have been sharp. They know it’s going to be tough this week. To beat one of the top teams you have to play a flawless game.”

And you have to put distractions behind you. Perhaps the Eagles didn’t do that so well last week – a couple of rough calls, including a knock-on in-goal that was given as a try – contributed to their loss to England. Then they came back against Argentina, but were somewhat annoyed at themselves for having left it so late.

It was if the ghosts of their own self-doubt and frustration affected their performance against France, Spain and Portugal, all losses.

“We are at the point where we simply should not lose to non-core teams,” said Caravelli, bluntly. “They are all good teams, but we did not play well against them.”

So on to Edinburgh, where the USA plays Samoa, Fiji and Scotland. The Americans match up relatively well against Samoa but have only beaten them once. Against Fiji they are 2-14.

“We have to control the ball,” said Caravelli. “You cannot afford to make mistakes at this level, and it will take all 12 players to accomplish what we need to accomplish.”

Look for Caravelli to make some lineup changes, also, as he assesses players for the Pan-Am Games in October.


Notes: The USA is currently 11^th in the HSBC Sevens World Series standings. A place in the top 12 means an invitation back as a core team, meaning they play in all eight tournaments in 2011-2012. The USA is currently 11^th with 10 points. Kenya and Scotland are only two points ahead at 12, and so could be caught. Meanwhile, Portugal and Russia are two points behind at 8, France at 6 and Canada at 5.